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Europeans are expected to buy an extra ten million bikes per year by 2030, 47% more than the annual number in 2019, a new forecast from CIE, CONEBI and ECF has shown.
The 30 million per year total will take bike sales to more than twice the number of passenger cars currently registered per year in the EU.
Using a new forecasting approach which analysed current trends, COVID-19 impacts and Government announcements about future cycling investments, the three European cycling organisations have projected both bike and e-bike sales for the next ten years in 30 countries.
E-bikes are predicted to grow from 3.7 million bikes sold in 2019 to 17 million in 2030. 2020 numbers suggest that the e-bike market will already end up 23% despite several months of bike shop closures in many countries and pressure on supply chains. Because of the current demand and the support already committed by Governments in terms of new infrastructure and purchase premiums for e-bikes, the associations believe that the ten million per year sales mark could be achieved as soon as 2024.
“Cycling is one of Europe’s most dynamic industries right now,” said Kevin Mayne, CEO of Cycling Industries Europe. “With these new numbers, we are able to show the EU, national Governments and the world-wide cycling sector that the European cycling market is the place to invest, to deliver the EU Green Deal, COVID recovery and new green jobs. With this strong collaboration between our associations, we can put real evidence in front of investors at every level.”
Manuel Marsilio, CONEBI general manager, added: “The bicycle industry is in transformation and we are seeing considerable growth in both sales and production of bicycles – in particular e-bikes – over the past years in Europe. To support the industry, CONEBI has partnered with CIE and ECF to prepare an up-to-date market forecast that shows how big the market size can be in the coming years. However, such growth will be possible only with the right regulatory environment and a clear industrial strategy across the EU and beyond.”
The industry associations are working with ECF’s experts in policy analysis to show the relationship between Government action, cycle use and sales. Since the beginning of the epidemic in March 2020, ECF’s COVID Measures tracker shows that Europe has spent €1 billion on cycling infrastructure and more than 2,300 kilometres of new bike lanes have been built. A new version of the tracker is being supported by the analysis of cycling strategies for all EU countries.
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